As I commented earlier, the most important parameter to keep track of when talking about cargo ships known as the Baltic Dry Index. This index has been around for 25 years and is an index refekterar cost of transporting dry bulk (coal, iron ore, etc.) over the oceans. boxspring More precisely, the index is based on daily charter rates quoted boxspring by shipping boxspring brokers in London for an average boxspring of representative boxspring routes. As some of you probably know, this index has been very volatile recently and during the crisis, saw its worst fall from the top of the 99%! A thought just: this index has been a long time been used as a measure of global economic activity. This was based on the supply of cargo ships was relatively constant over time (for instance, when it takes a long time to manufacture a ship). The index was a measure of demand for commodities. The recent overproduction of cargo ships, however, might change that. In other words, although the BDI will give us the price of transporting dry bulk so will no longer be this price to fully reflect demand pressures in the economy. A low index, eg be a sign of too many vessels rather than large demand for transpoter. boxspring Worth thinking about?
I would just like to add one thing that you have not addressed in your two BDI-related items that I feel are important, that the BDI is not subject to speculation, but can constitute a "real" price; you do not order volume on a ship about two weeks in the hope of being able to sell it more expensive to someone else before then. Now before you admittedly criticism this real price and says it may be incorrect over time anyway, and the criticism is interesting and there is absolutely boxspring unfounded. But ... If we assume that what you say is correct, then we can express it as we have a (disposable) structural break in the index in the financial crisis and the index after this will give lower values than in the past because it has been a fundamental change in the underlying equilibrium price (of shipping dry goods). This should not be a problem if we choose to take into account the change or choose to only use index data after the financial crisis. As I see it, we have a bias (down) in price compared to before the financial crisis, the capacity is constant (few ships taken off the market, get to come), the new equilibrium price in the market will therefore be lower to reflect on the capacity but the index is still a sense if you look at the change in after the break as the increased demand will lead to higher shipping prices (albeit much lower in absolute terms than in the past). I reserve the right to be out in deep water here :). March 12, 2010 04:36
Editor: yes threads I. all the time, then 18 years old. and still as fun. However, low frequency (definitely not day-trader that is). have not time for that. YBF: I do not really hang with here. sorry :)'ll think more about it. My thought was just that there seems to be many new vessels on the market boxspring (ie, the capacity is not constant as you type), and it should make the BDI can not be interpreted as demand pressures. it is of course still be used as a price signal in terms of shipments. especially if one just watching pornographic post crisis data so you can safely use it as both absolute and relative measurements. or? March 13, 2010 06:00
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