BDY continues to climb upward in a rather astounding rate given everything we see around us right now. There is talk of sovereign defaults, bankruptcy, louis xvi banks, recessions, louis xvi etc etc ... they seem Index tough on the up, and the modest pace.
Mattias said:
Harper-Petersen index will according to the wikipedia page for the BDI to be a similar indicator for container traffic. This index is downward. It may be helpful to keep track of both these indices. they should go up both in the upswing. However it is possible that they move a little out of sync, such that Harper bottoms a few months after BDI.
Thanks fr uppmrksamheten. Harper-Petersen index, as I understand it, is an index that mter transport activity p sllankpsvaror (in all cases more frdlade products) ihgre degree n BDI as framfrallt mter rmaterialtransporter, Hence mostly louis xvi non-frdlade products. It would be entirely logical ice case BDI vnder Fri HPI since rmaterialet will Fri sllankpsvaror in a business cycle. I did a quick gonmttning against HPI and think I see that this index fljer the real economy, or rather BRSEN, Hence 6-12 mnader Fri the real economy, vldigt v l The interesting hr r Hence the BDI in this reasoning indeed be VNDA Fri HPI and HPI brflja about 6 mnader after BDI. Since BRSEN rrt sideways a couple louis xvi of weeks I would frvnta me that vein HPI rrst sideways, but Mr. exhibit curve Hence still a strong downward trend. An explanation on mjlig for this may be that BRSEN and the real economy begins to see a hint of the bottom, while the upcoming recession lrf fljen that we may consume frre f rdlade and imported goods. louis xvi In this line of reasoning should be thought HPI fall while BRSEN bottomed, which we also see. However, I would also frvnta me HPI flattens out quite quickly from then remain louis xvi on a rather low level for some time. All this while the BDI continues to rise.
The BDI rises can be a sign that lnders focus on infrastructure is less elastic n demand for imported goods. Perhaps begins the market already pricing in that there will be n more bets on just infrastructure. It might even rngot man begun to frvnta itself as the lgkonjunkturerna approaching. The U.S. has already announced efforts on this area in and with Obama's louis xvi plan of work.
In sum, I would pst that HPI will follow the real economy to a much larger EXTENT n BDI. BDI will be Fri BRSEN or At least jms with, never after. Drfr I would rather look on the BDI in order to receive a hint about whether BRSEN bottomed and rp please to VNDA.
Thanks for the reply. I think in about the same courses as you. Though I was a bit too dull to develop my argument in previous posts. BDI should turn up before it is visible on the indicators of the real economy (GDP), while the HPI should be more correlated with GDP, or maybe a little before.
What may complicate the picture a bit is the fleet development. I understand there is considerable excess capacity - which was built up during the boom - at least in bulk traffic, which now has lowered BDI to very low levels. So earlier levels on the BDI might not be met in many years, if ever
I tnker exactly the same. I think one can conclude also d one sees history louis xvi over the BDI which never turned inrheten of previous Niver even though we had a spinning economy in a pair rp lately. Maybe they r spikes we see the new "normal" niverna.
Hey, sorry I did not attached lnken. It was featured in a television or inlgg longer down on the blog. Here it will anyway. The framgrrtt clear that the BDI fll significantly Fri BRSEN, and that the splashed on low levels a longer time now, for finally VNDA Detect quite sharply. I lter s sjlva make your interpretations, but someone kind of substance, there should at least be in this, and perhaps it may be something to include in a decision-making basis for how tnker acting.
I have not analyzed the AP Mller Maersk, but I know that Lunda loupe both analyzed them and has them in his portflj. To me it feels like the right longterm and defensive louis xvi kp which may be completely right in these times.
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